Here's where we're at this morning guys. Basically, the Euro model (the king of models) is our friend right now. All models show a front moving through Tuesday and then some snow in the mountains Tuesday night. However, after that is when they begin to diverge. Here are the two scenarios developing.
The Euro has a pocket of cold air getting pinched off from the upper trough and meandering over the region for a few days. It also has a coastal low forming and moving up the eastern seaboard. This would be good. We could see around the clock snowmaking Wednesday through Friday and higher snow totals. This model is an outlier right now though.
Most other models show the trough progressing through quickly and exiting Wednesday night. They don't show a low forming on the coast either. This solution would mainly confine snow to the frontal passage on Tuesday night. Temps would be warmer for Thursday and Friday, but overnight lows would still support snowmaking.
Here are the Euro (left) and GFS (right) meteograms for Boone between now and next Friday/Saturday. As you can see, the Euro shows sub freezing temps for an extended period of time. The GFS is warmer but still has sub freezing lows at night. It also has way less precip.
This isn't a forecast. Things will change over the weekend I'm sure. The last 3 runs of the Euro has seen the axis of snow go from the east coast to the spine of the Appalachians and then back again to the east coast. The weekend runs will give us a better idea of what's to come.
I will say that even if the GFS pans out, I am still optimistic about a Sugar opening. A little bit of snow combined with several nights of snowmaking and I could definitely see them pull the trigger.